After a vote by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in 1960, a blueprint was prepared to assess the results by knowing the mood of the public, which are known as exit polls. The exit poll is only part of the Opinion Poll, which is assessed immediately after the vote.
In a referendum, figures are gathered in a different way to understand public opinion during elections. For this, pre poll, exit poll and post poll opinion surveys are done. The three survey methods are different from each other. When the voter exits after casting his vote in the exit poll, he is asked some questions and tries to fumble. So that it can be found out which party or which candidate the voter is coming by giving his valuable vote. The exit poll is released after the election is over after analyzing these data collected from the booth.
The first exit poll was done in 1996
In the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, the CSDS issued an exit poll on the basis of a ready-made template, which indicated that a fractured mandate may come this time. When the real results came, the whole country was surprised. The poll results and CSDS exit poll estimates were largely the same.
It is estimated that in 1996, the Bharatiya Janata Party emerged as the largest party, but remained away from the majority. At the same time, the President invited Atal Bihari Vajpayee to form the government. The government was formed, but fell in just 13 days.
In the mid-1980s, after the first vote by the media, there was an attempt to find the pulse of the voters. Then, as television spread in the 1990s, exit polls became more popular among people. In the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, almost every major news channel had exit polls.
During this time also, it was estimated in the exit polls that the BJP would emerge as the largest party. Although the exact figures for the exit poll seat were not available, they were largely predictable. According to the poll, the NDA was expected to get between 214-249 seats and the Congress-led UPA 145-164 seats. At the same time, NDA got 252 seats and Congress 166 seats.
Till now, the exit of public opinion had spread. People were uneasy about the estimate of exit polls after voting. The NDA was projected to get 300 seats in the exit polls of the 1999 election and actually got 296 seats. The UPA was estimated to have 132–150 seats and won 134 seats.
However, exit polls of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections proved to be extremely disappointing. This time the NDA was expected to get the mandate again, but it was found that the NDA could not even touch 200 seats. This time the UPA had got 222 seats, after which the UPA government was formed with the support of SP and BSP.
Similarly, the exit poll estimates have been fluctuating. Sometimes the results are exactly accurate, sometimes around the estimate, sometimes the opposite is true. At present, the entire nation's eye is on the exit polls of Bihar Assembly elections, in which there is a tough competition between the Grand Alliance and the NDA.
After a vote by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in 1960, a blueprint was prepared to assess the results by knowing the mood of the public, which are known as exit polls. The exit poll is only part of the Opinion Poll, which is assessed immediately after the vote.
In a referendum, figures are gathered in a different way to understand public opinion during elections. For this, pre poll, exit poll and post poll opinion surveys are done. The three survey methods are different from each other. When the voter exits after casting his vote in the exit poll, he is asked some questions and tries to fumble. So that it can be found out which party or which candidate the voter is coming by giving his valuable vote. The exit poll is released after the election is over after analyzing these data collected from the booth.
The first exit poll was done in 1996
In the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, the CSDS issued an exit poll on the basis of a ready-made template, which indicated that a fractured mandate may come this time. When the real results came, the whole country was surprised. The poll results and CSDS exit poll estimates were largely the same.
It is estimated that in 1996, the Bharatiya Janata Party emerged as the largest party, but remained away from the majority. At the same time, the President invited Atal Bihari Vajpayee to form the government. The government was formed, but fell in just 13 days.
Exit poll's popularity increases with TV
In the mid-1980s, after the first vote by the media, there was an attempt to find the pulse of the voters. Then, as television spread in the 1990s, exit polls became more popular among people. In the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, almost every major news channel had exit polls.
During this time also, it was estimated in the exit polls that the BJP would emerge as the largest party. Although the exact figures for the exit poll seat were not available, they were largely predictable. According to the poll, the NDA was expected to get between 214-249 seats and the Congress-led UPA 145-164 seats. At the same time, NDA got 252 seats and Congress 166 seats.
Till now, the exit of public opinion had spread. People were uneasy about the estimate of exit polls after voting. The NDA was projected to get 300 seats in the exit polls of the 1999 election and actually got 296 seats. The UPA was estimated to have 132–150 seats and won 134 seats.
Estimates of Exit Polls when it first erupted
However, exit polls of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections proved to be extremely disappointing. This time the NDA was expected to get the mandate again, but it was found that the NDA could not even touch 200 seats. This time the UPA had got 222 seats, after which the UPA government was formed with the support of SP and BSP.
Similarly, the exit poll estimates have been fluctuating. Sometimes the results are exactly accurate, sometimes around the estimate, sometimes the opposite is true. At present, the entire nation's eye is on the exit polls of Bihar Assembly elections, in which there is a tough competition between the Grand Alliance and the NDA.
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