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- Bihar Election 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections 2020 Latest News Update What Next For BJP West Bengal Elections 2021 How Bihar Election Results Will Affect Bengal Elections
2 hours agoAuthor: Ravindra Bhajani
After the results of the Bihar assembly elections, the center of political discussion has now become West Bengal, where the assembly elections are to be held in April-May 2021. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress has been in power in Bengal for 10 years. The term of the Legislative Assembly of Bengal expires in May 2021. Definitely elections will be held before that. If we compare 2016 assembly elections and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, then it is certain that the contest will be between BJP and Trinamool. There is not much influence left by Congress and Left parties, which used to be there till few years back.
BJP won only 3 assembly seats in 2016
- Trinamool got more than two-thirds majority in the 2016 assembly elections in the 294-member Bengal Assembly. The Trinamool Congress had won 211 seats with 44.91% of the vote. The BJP won only three seats, contesting 291 seats. It received 10.16% votes. The Left and Congress contested the elections together, but their experiment was completely unsuccessful. This was the worst performance of left parties so far. The Congress won 40 seats and the Left 31 seats.
BJP had lead in 128 assembly seats in 2019
- The BJP won just two seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In comparison, it won 18 seats in the 2019 elections. At the same time, the seats of the Trinamool Congress were reduced from 34 to 22. The Trinamool Congress secured 44.91% votes, while the BJP got 40.3% votes. BJP got a total of 2.30 crore votes while Trinamool got 2.47 crore votes.
- The special thing is that the BJP gained the lead in 128 assembly seats in the state, while the Trinamool's lead was reduced to only 158 seats. If the voting in 2021 also happens on the lines of the Lok Sabha elections, the Trinamool would get only 10 seats more than the majority, but it is important to see that the BJP's vote share was 17% in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, which was reduced to 10% in the assembly elections Was left.
Messages hidden in 2019 data
- In 2014, BJP's lead was in 28 assembly segments, while in 2019 it increased to 128 seats. It is also clear from this that the BJP has emerged as the main opposition party in Bengal. Not only Bengal, but the Look East Policy of the BJP has achieved great success in the states of East India and Northeast.
- It has also become a case study for many political pundits that the party which was ineffective in Bengal politics five years ago has now emerged as the main opposition party. The BJP has made inroads in the northern and western parts of Bengal in the Lok Sabha elections. At the same time, South Bengal still remains the stronghold of Trinamool.
- In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, there was a direct contest in the BJP and Trinamool Congress on 40 seats in the state. That is, where the BJP won, Trinamool stood at number two and where Trinamool got the seat, BJP was at number two. In more than 10 seats the win-loss difference was 5% or less.
How will Bengal elections be affected by Bihar elections?
- Kishanganj in Bihar is on the border of West Bengal. Muslim dominated areas like Islampur are just a few hours away from Kishanganj. The BJP's Hindu candidate made the Congress victory difficult on a seat with 70% Muslim population like Kishanganj. Asaduddin Owaisi's party has entered the area.
- For the first time in Bihar, Owaisi's AIMIM won five seats and indicated that it could become a vote-cutting party in Muslim-majority areas of Bengal. It has already stepped up preparations for the Bengal elections. BJP can get its full benefit. If the Hindu vote is consolidated, which the BJP has been trying in Bengal for the last few years, then Trinamool's problems may increase. Similarly, polarization of voters is certain due to the presence of AIMIM.
- The Muslim population is 51% in Malda, 66% in Murshidabad, 30% in Nadia, 40% in Birbhum, 30% in Purulia and 15% in East and West Midnapore. In such a situation, if the BJP's efforts were successful, then the votes will be divided on the seats of the Muslim vote and the Hindu votes will be consolidated.
BJP's target of more than 220 seats
- The BJP is eyeing 220 seats in the 2021 assembly elections. Keeping this in mind, he has also conducted two internal surveys in Bengal. According to the report of the news agency PTI, the results of the survey showed that the general public is accepting BJP as an alternative to Trinamool.
- BJP surveyed 78 thousand booths in the state from two different agencies. In this, he tried to find the strength and weakness of himself and other parties. At the same time, the ability of his candidates to win also snapped up. The BJP is conducting a similar survey in December. On the basis of these survey reports, the party is preparing a strategy.
- BJP leader and Home Minister Amit Shah has also increased his activism over the Bengal elections. It is clear that the entire focus of the party is now going to be on Bengal. If the Congress and the Left parties come together and contest the elections like in the previous assembly elections, then the BJP's problem will increase, otherwise the vicissitudes in the Bengal Assembly cannot be denied.