Business Desk, Tech for FTCP, New Delhi
Updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 01:24 AM IST
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The government has not released GDP figures for the second quarter, but researchers at the central bank have estimated using the forecast forecast method that the GDP size will decline by 8.6 percent in the July-September quarter. Earlier, RBI had predicted a 9.5 per cent decline in GDP in the current financial year.
The report prepared by Pankaj Kumar of the Central Bank's Researcher and Monetary Policy Department said that India is technically stuck in economic downturn for the first time in its history in the first half of 2020-21.
The report titled 'Economic Performance Index' states that economic contraction is forecast for the second consecutive quarter. However, it also states that activities are slowly normalizing, leading to a declining rate of GDP and that the situation is expected to improve.
Moody's raises economic growth estimate
Moody's Investors Service has raised India's economic growth forecast for calendar year 2020 to (-) 8.9 per cent. Earlier (-) 9.6 percent growth rate was estimated. The rating agency on Thursday raised its economic growth forecast for calendar year 2021 to 8.6 percent from 8.1 percent.
Moody's said, raising India's estimate that the decline in new cases of infection is reducing traffic restrictions in the country. This is the reason why economic activity is expected to accelerate further in the coming quarters.
However, the slowdown in lending facilities due to weak financial sector will affect the improvement. Furthermore, the global economic growth rate will depend on how the epidemic is being controlled.